[HBM] AI 진단 리포트

Oops, something went wrong The explosion in artificial intelligence spending over the past few years has led many companies to see their profits soar, and semiconductor stocks have been some of the biggest beneficiaries by far. Two of the best performers in the sector over the past year are Micron Technology (NASDAQ: MU) and Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing (NYSE: TSM) -- also known as TSMC. TSMC's 92% gain over the past year would be impressive if it weren't absolutely dwarfed by the nearly 300% increase in Micron's share price over the same period. Will AI create the world's first trillionaire? Our team just released a report on the one little-known company, called an "Indispensable Monopoly" providing the critical technology Nvidia and Intel both need. Continue » But investors always need to be looking toward the future. And while both of these companies have produced phenomenal results and have very positive outlooks for 2026 as well, I think one stands out as a much better buy right now for long-term investors. There's no doubt that AI has been a driving force for both Micron and TSMC's recent results. Micron specializes in memory chips, which have seen a recent spike in demand. That's because GPU and other AI accelerator chips require significant amounts of specialty chips called high-bandwidth memory (HBM). That demand has increased recently as new artificial intelligence models use more parameters and larger context windows, requiring more working memory. Micron is just one of three major suppliers of HBM chips. The sudden spike in demand left the entire industry in short supply, driving prices higher. As a result, Micron is seeing good growth in bit shipments for its chips, but pricing is the real driving force behind its stellar earnings growth. Taiwan Semiconductor is the world's largest contract chip manufacturer. It's seen its share grow over the past few years as demand for more advanced chips grows faster than the overall market, and TSMC has the best manufacturing technology in the world. Practically every high-end AI chip comes out of TSMC's facilities. TSMC has also been able to increase pricing amid strong demand for its products. It implemented a price increase earlier this year for its most advanced chips with plans to raise prices annually. As it ramps up its newest chip process, N2, it's charging a significant premium per silicon wafer over the previous generation (although it theoretically can print more chips per wafer). That said, the bulk of its growth stems from printing, packaging, and shipping more chips. Both Micron and TSMC are poised to grow earnings in 2026, but long-term investors should look well beyond the current year. A company with a competitive advantage in its market can reliably produce earnings growth year after year. TSMC has established itself as the technology leader among contract chip manufacturers. It stands to maintain that lead for two key reasons. First, it generates significantly more revenue than the competition, giving it more cash to invest in research and development for its next-generation technology. That ensures it can maintain its technology lead and win contracts year after year. Second, it has more capacity than any of its competitors. While a large customer could switch some of its work to a competitor, it's unlikely TSMC will lose all of a chipmaker's work. Building out new capacity takes years and massive upfront capital investments. Micron, unfortunately, doesn't appear to hold much of a competitive advantage at all. Memory chips are more or less a commodity. And while packaging for high-bandwidth memory can provide some differentiation between the chipmakers, Micron doesn't appear to have the lead in that regard. That means Micron's pricing power won't be long lived. As the chipmaker and its competitors bring on more capacity to meet the demand for memory chips, prices will trend lower. That will severely cut into earnings, eventually leading to a drop. It's a pattern seen over and over again. Micron's management has said it expects the supply shortage to last through 2027. Analysts agree, projecting earnings growth to skyrocket through next year. However, they then see a stark drop in earnings in fiscal 2028 and 2029. Even with the expected drop in earnings as the supply-demand equilibrium returns to balance, Micron could be a better buy than TSMC based on market valuations. In fact, Micron shares trade for just 6.5 times forward earnings estimates. And with earnings per share expected to climb even more in 2027, the stock trades for just under 4 times next year's earnings. But before investors get too excited about that dirt cheap valuation, it's important to put it in the context of the stock's valuation amid previous earnings cycles. Micron has historically traded at 3 to 6 times earnings at the peak of its earnings cycles. As a result, a multiple of 4 times 2027 earnings is about fair value for the stock today. TSMC, on the other ha

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