The limit of the 20-day moving average's misalignment, which could not withstand the expectation of improved earnings and collapsed.

Reviewing Prediction vs. Actual Result

Based on strong Q2 revenue, a 25% surge news, and a recent 7‑day volatility of +35.1%, we set an expected return of 2.5% anticipating further upside, but the actual result recorded a -14.6% FAILED(손절선 도달 실패). Although at entry the 20‑day moving average was misaligned and volume was 0.66× the 20‑day average—somewhat weak—we overly focused on the superficial indicators of short‑term rally momentum and a break above the resistance level ($4.43), which analysis shows was the main cause of the failure to defend against the downside.

What to Watch in the Next Analysis

Through this review, I realized that rather than being misled by simple positive news and short‑term volatility (+35.1%), conservative risk management should be the top priority in periods where the trend foundation is unstable, such as when moving averages are not aligned. Going forward, I will reflect actionable adjustments in trading, such as reducing position size or applying stricter stop‑loss criteria for stocks that lack accompanying volume or have misaligned moving averages.