Macom outlines Q4 FY 2026 revenue of $415M-$425M with adjusted EPS of $1.97-$2.03 as backlog hits record 1.6:1 book-to-bill
Macom has provided guidance for Q4 FY 2026, projecting revenue of $415M to $425M and adjusted EPS of $1.97 to $2.03, and announced that the book-to-bill ratio reached an all-time high of 1.6:1.
The current price is $301.64, positioned between the support level ($228.02) and the resistance level ($328.62). Considering the positive guidance news that recorded an all-time high in the order-to-claim ratio, entry is being contemplated.
If the upward trend continues and reaches the resistance level of $328.62, I will take profits. If it falls below the support level of $228.02, increasing the risk, I will cut losses.
RSI(14) 45.5, moving averages are 'not_aligned', trading volume is 1.20 times the 20-day average, and the recent 7-day volatility is +0.1%.
Past similar success cases BHC (2026-07-31, return 28.8% and 28.7%) and APPS (2026-08-12, return 27.7%) were both selected based on the overlapping keyword 'guidance upgrade', and this trade is similar in that it is also based on positive news related to guidance.
Based on the record-high order-to-bill ratio and solid guidance, an increase was predicted; however, the actual result was a -14.4% return, resulting in a FAILED rating. At the time of entry, the moving averages were in a 'not_aligned' state, and the RSI was at 45.5, remaining in the neutral zone, which indicated a low level of trend reliability. This weak trend reliability ultimately contributed to the inability to withstand downward pressure.
In the future, regardless of how excellent the earnings guidance or order wins may be, it should be noted that when the moving averages are in a non-aligned state, the strength of the trend may be insufficient. Until the technical indicators stabilize in an aligned state, we will apply a conservative approach by reducing the entry weight or waiting for a more certain confirmation of a rebound at the support level before proceeding.