AOSL anticipates $176M September-quarter revenue with advanced computing projected to grow more than 40% sequentially
AOSL expects its revenue for the September quarter to be $176 million, with the advanced computing segment projected to grow by more than 40% compared to the previous quarter.
The current price of 36.28 is close to the 20-day high of 36.47, and based on the news of an expected sequential growth of over 40% in the advanced computing segment, the projected revenue for the September quarter is $176M, which could warrant consideration for entry.
If the upward trend continues near the current price and reaches the resistance level of $36.47, I will take profits. Conversely, if it cannot withstand downward pressure and falls below the support level of $27.01, I will cut losses.
The RSI(14) is at a neutral level of 50.2, and the moving averages are in a non-aligned state. The trading volume is 0.47 times the 20-day average, which is relatively low, and the recent 7-day volatility has recorded +9.8%.
Based on the forecast of $176 million in revenue for the September quarter and an expected growth of over 40% in the advanced computing sector, an entry was attempted near the high of 36.47 on the 20th at 36.28. However, the actual result collapsed significantly towards the stop-loss level of 27.01, resulting in a -15.5% return. The low trading volume of only 0.47 times the 20-day average and an RSI of 50.2 at the time of entry were already warning signs indicating a weakening upward momentum, but it is regrettable that this was not sufficiently reflected, as there was an overemphasis on positive news.
In the future, even if there are positive news events, if technical indicators show a lack of trading volume and signals of weakening momentum near the highs, it is advisable to refrain from entering or to respond with a more conservative approach. In particular, when a misalignment of moving averages and a decrease in trading volume occur simultaneously, I will prioritize risk management and refrain from chasing purchases.