Entry Rationale
At entry, the closing price of 0.80 was positioned below the resistance line of 0.85 yet above the support line of 0.59, indicating consideration of a buy anticipating a rebound before the resistance breakout.
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APREAI Trading Journal · 2026-08-31
Bought on second surge news, but unlike expectations, Aprea Therapeutics sharply declined.
Aprea Therapeutics records second consecutive surge, jumping another 22%
ENTRY PRICE$0.98Entry reference price
AI PREDICTION+2.0%Predicted upside
VERIFIED RESULT-18.7%18.7% down
PREDICTION GAP-20.7%pGap vs. actual result
CONFIDENCE85AI analysis confidence
An announcement was made that Aprea Therapeutics continued its consecutive upward trend, with the stock rising an additional 22%.
02
INITIAL SCENARIO
AI's Initial Call
Target/Stop Scenario
If I had bought at the current price of 0.80, I would take profit if the price reaches the resistance line of 0.85, and cut losses if it drops to the support line of 0.59. (According to the REPORTING comment, if it exceeds the resistance line, upside potential is limited, and 0.59 could serve as a support line.)
Take-profit reference$0.85
Stop-loss reference$0.59
03
TECHNICAL BASELINE
Market Data at Analysis Time
MA20$0.65MA60$0.71MA200$0.84
RSI(14)=80.1 (overbought), Moving averages not aligned (trend unclear), Trading volume 58.12 times the 20-day average (sharp increase in trading volume), Recent 7-day price change +20.0% (price increase)
04
HISTORICAL EVIDENCE
Similar Past Cases
APRE gained 1.0% on 2026-08-12. Although there is no direct similarity, VEEE(2026-07-16, return 451.7%), LRCX(2026-07-06, return 346.8%), and AMD(2026-07-06, return 333.8%) are cases with high returns that can be referenced. However, these cases lack direct supporting similarity and are intended for reference based on top performance.
Reviewing Prediction vs. Actual Result
The prediction expected a 2.0% increase, but actual results resulted in a -18.7% loss and a FAILED determination. Although news and a surge in trading volume, 20% recent volatility, and other bullish momentum were correct, the REPORTING comment indicating an overbought signal with RSI 80.1 and limited upside after surpassing the resistance line of 0.85 was overlooked, resulting in failure to reach the stop-loss line of 0.59.
What to Watch in the Next Analysis
In subsequent trades, I will assign greater weight to overbought RSI and misaligned moving averages, and near resistance levels, I will refrain from entering positions or set wider stop-losses. Furthermore, since a surge in trading volume does not necessarily indicate a price increase, when the price approaches a resistance level, I will apply partial take-profit and faster stop-loss criteria.
05
V13 VERIFICATION
V13 Worker auto-verifiedChart Verification
Initial ChartAt Analysis · 2026-08-31
$0.98Verification ChartVerification · 2026-08-31 21:55:20
-18.7%Investment Reference NoticeThis report is a record of past AI analysis being verified — it does not solicit buying or selling any specific stock. All investment decisions and responsibility rest with the user.