Despite earnings surprises and AI optimism, the support level collapsed, reflecting the market's harsh reality.

Reviewing Prediction vs. Actual Result

Entered the position expecting an upward trend based on strong earnings and AI growth expectations, but the actual result recorded a -10.3% return, ending in a failure to reach the stop‑loss level (FAILED). At that time the 14‑day RSI was 62.8, nearing overbought territory, and the 7‑day change was +4.6%, showing upside pressure; however, trading volume was 0.73× the 20‑day average, somewhat weak, and the moving averages were in a non‑aligned state, indicating that the trend’s momentum was not fully intact. Moreover, despite the positive news of an earnings surprise, I did not adequately weigh the warnings from other related reports that simultaneously showed the market’s disappointment selling pressure on a break below the 50‑day moving average and on guidance.

What to Watch in the Next Analysis

Through this trade, I learned that even if positive earnings announcements and an upward trend in the theme (rising, 전환율 18.0%) create short‑term momentum, downside risk can become significantly larger at any time when the moving averages are misaligned and trading volume is below average. Going forward, I will adjust my trading principle to not rely solely on one‑time positives such as earnings beats; if trading volume and moving‑average alignment do not support the move, I will either take a more conservative stance by postponing entry or tighten stop‑loss controls.