Fluor targets $500M-$525M 2026 adjusted EBITDA as backlog nears $27B following $6B+ in Q2 awards
Fluor has set a target for adjusted EBITDA of $500 million to $525 million for 2026, with a backlog nearing $27 billion and second-quarter orders exceeding $6 billion.
The current closing price of $51.28 is near the recent low of $51.2, with the moving averages in a bullish alignment and an RSI of 49.1 indicating a neutral situation. Additionally, the trading volume has surged to 2.18 times the 20-day average, so we consider buying in conjunction with Fluor's 2026 EBITDA target positive outlook.
If the price reaches the REPORTING calculated value of $53.42, take profits, and if it reaches $46.77, cut losses.
RSI(14)=49.1 (neutral), moving averages in a positive arrangement (upward trend), trading volume 2.18 times the 20-day average (active trading), recent 7-day volatility -1.2% (slight decline).
On August 6, 2026, there was a sharp increase of +16.9% followed by declines of -4.0% on August 7 and 8, respectively. Additionally, there was a case on July 17, 2026, where the stock rose by +8.5%. This pattern of a sharp increase followed by a correction suggests a similar possibility in the current trading.
The actual result of -10.5% did not reach the stop-loss level compared to the forecasted return of 4.5%, resulting in a FAILED evaluation. While the positive EBITDA target, upwardly arranged moving averages, and surge in trading volume were correctly identified, the price decline being steeper than expected and the underestimation of the adjustment pattern following the spike led to the loss.
In the next trading session, rather than making entry decisions solely based on positive news and technical signals, it is more important to reflect the overall market news flow (decrease in industrial theme news) and the potential for a correction following the recent surge. Additionally, it is necessary to set stop-loss levels more conservatively and to confirm whether the surge in trading volume continues before taking positions.