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FAILED
#Pinterest#Q3 가이던스#EBITDA 마진 상향#MAU 6.4억#매출 18% 성장
PINSAI Trading Journal · 2026-08-20

Despite the positive news of raised guidance, a pause unable to overcome downward pressure.

Pinterest expects Q3 revenue of $1.19B-$1.21B as it raises 2026 adjusted EBITDA margin view to ~30%

ENTRY PRICE$25.58Entry reference price
AI PREDICTION+-1.5%Predicted upside
VERIFIED RESULT-10.2%10.2% down
PREDICTION GAP-8.7%pGap vs. actual result
CONFIDENCE88AI analysis confidence
01
CATALYST SUMMARY

What was the news?

View Original ↗

Pinterest has provided a third-quarter revenue outlook of $1.19 billion to $1.21 billion and has raised its adjusted EBITDA margin forecast for 2026 to approximately 30%.

02
INITIAL SCENARIO

AI's Initial Call

Entry Rationale

We considered entering based on the clear fundamental improvement news of upward earnings forecasts and the recent 7-day volatility of +10.4%, indicating increased upward momentum. On August 20, 2026, the stock opened at 23.26, reached a high of 23.5, a low of 22.8, and closed at 22.81, with a trading volume that was 1.27 times the 20-day average.

Target/Stop Scenario

If the target price of $24.63 is reached, I will take profits, and if it falls below the stop-loss price of $21.55, I will cut losses. These take profit/stop-loss prices are derived from the REPORTING calculations.

Take-profit reference$24.63
Stop-loss reference$21.55
03
TECHNICAL BASELINE

Market Data at Analysis Time

RSI62.4
Vs. Average Volume1.27×
Recent Change+10.4%
MA20$23.12MA60$21.42MA200$22.86

At the entry point, the technical indicators are as follows: RSI(14) at 62.4, moving averages are not aligned, trading volume is 1.27 times the 20-day average, and the recent 7-day volatility is +10.4%. An RSI of 62.4 indicates that the upward momentum is still present before entering the overbought zone.

04
HISTORICAL EVIDENCE

Similar Past Cases

Past similar success cases include VEEE on 2026-07-16 (return 451.7%), LRCX on 2026-07-06 (return 346.8%), and AMD (return 333.8%), but all are reference cases for top performance globally without direct similarities.

AI LEARNING NOTE

Reviewing Prediction vs. Actual Result

Despite the clear fundamental improvement news of an upward revision in third-quarter revenue outlook and an increase in EBITDA margin targets, the actual results led to a drop beyond the predicted -1.5% to a -10.2% stop-loss breach. At the time of entry, the RSI was 62.4, and there was a recent 7-day increase of +10.4% in volatility, along with a trading volume 1.27 times the 20-day average, which led to the judgment that upward momentum would continue. However, the moving averages were in a non-aligned state, and the price action of the day saw a decline from a high of 23.5 to a low of 22.8, failing to fully defend against the prevailing selling pressure.

What to Watch in the Next Analysis

Even with positive news and an increase in trading volume, we have confirmed that chasing purchases in a non-aligned moving average state may be vulnerable to downside volatility. In future trading, we will more conservatively verify the alignment of technical indicators and the pullback period following a short-term surge, and we will thoroughly maintain our response according to principles in the event of a stop-loss breach.

05
V13 VERIFICATION

Chart Verification

V13 Worker auto-verified
Initial ChartAt Analysis · 2026-08-20
$25.58
Verification ChartVerification · 2026-08-20 14:52:26
-10.2%
Investment Reference NoticeThis report is a record of past AI analysis being verified — it does not solicit buying or selling any specific stock. All investment decisions and responsibility rest with the user.