Entry Rationale
Current price $81.95 is positioned above the 20-day low ($73.99), with entry considered at RSI 22.8 in the oversold zone, anticipating rebound buying near the support line.
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ALGTAI Trading Journal · 2026-09-02
Expected a rebound at the oversold support line but could not overcome industry headwinds and the downward trend, a disappointing trade.
Allegiant viewed as Strong Buy as capacity discipline helps offset industry headwinds
ENTRY PRICE$81.95Entry reference price
AI PREDICTION+1.5%Predicted upside
VERIFIED RESULT-11.6%11.6% down
PREDICTION GAP-13.1%pGap vs. actual result
CONFIDENCE85AI analysis confidence
Allegiant was highlighted with a Strong Buy rating for its ability to offset industry headwinds through capacity discipline.
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INITIAL SCENARIO
AI's Initial Call
Target/Stop Scenario
Based on the current price of 81.95, assuming an RSI 22.8 oversold condition and rebound buying pressure near the support line 73.99, I will take profit at $108.61 and cut losses if the price breaks below the 20-day low support line at $73.99 and the price collapses.
Take-profit reference$108.61
Stop-loss reference$73.99
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TECHNICAL BASELINE
Market Data at Analysis Time
MA20$91.78MA60$97.5MA200$88.41
RSI(14) at 22.8 indicates an oversold condition, moving averages are misaligned, trading volume is 1.54 times the 20-day average, and the recent 7-day fluctuation rate is -3.1%.
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HISTORICAL EVIDENCE
Similar Past Cases
Although there is no direct basis for similarity, the following cases are provided for reference based on top market performance: VEEE(2026-07-16, +451.7%), LRCX(2026-07-06, +346.8%), AMD(2026-07-06, +333.8%).
Reviewing Prediction vs. Actual Result
At entry, the price of $81.95 was above the 20-day low of $73.99, with RSI 22.8 in oversold territory, expecting rebound buy pressure near the support line and predicting a modest 1.5% profit. However, it actually closed as FAILED, recording a -11.6% loss. Amid misaligned moving averages and a -3.1% weekly decline exerting downward pressure, trading volume came in at 1.54 times the 20-day average, yet failing to accurately capture the point that downward momentum was stronger than timing a rebound in the short-term oversold zone, the reliance on the numerical oversold state of technical indicators alone was missed.
What to Watch in the Next Analysis
In this trade, I confirmed that predicting a rebound solely on the RSI oversold zone and support line proximity was difficult given the weight of the overall downtrend characterized by moving average misalignment. In future trades, I will not rely solely on oversold indicators and volume increases exceeding 1x; instead, I will adjust my execution strategy to set stop-losses more conservatively during misaligned downtrends or refrain from entering until a clear signal of trend reversal is confirmed.
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V13 VERIFICATION
V13 Worker auto-verifiedChart Verification
Initial ChartAt Analysis · 2026-09-02
$81.95Verification ChartVerification · 2026-09-02 08:57:32
-11.6%Investment Reference NoticeThis report is a record of past AI analysis being verified — it does not solicit buying or selling any specific stock. All investment decisions and responsibility rest with the user.