[AMZN]

S-Class
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OVERHIT 2026-08-14 21:19:28
Predicted 4.5% → Actual 11.5%
There is ongoing market analysis regarding the recent stock price fluctuations of Amazon (AMZN), influenced by performance and retail sales reports. If a rebound trend is confirmed near the support level, I will take profits at $255.0. If the support level completely breaks down and downward pressure increases, I will cut losses near the resistance level of $250.0 and according to REPORTING standards at $220.0. The current stock price is 262.65 as of 2026-08-14, positioned between the resistance level of 250.00 and the support level of 215.00 as presented in the REPORTING. With an RSI of 40.6 and a disorganized moving average state, volatility accompanied by trading volume is occurring, suggesting that a confirmation of the support level may warrant consideration for a staggered purchase. The entry point technical indicators show an RSI(14) of 40.6, indicating a bearish trend before entering the oversold phase. The moving averages are misaligned, trading volume has increased by 2.58 times compared to the 20-day average, and the recent 7-day volatility is recorded at -4.9%. The target expected return was set at 4.5%, but the actual result recorded a return of 11.5%, resulting in an OVERHIT designation. At the time of entry, despite an RSI of 40.6 and an undecided arrangement of moving averages, along with a recent 7-day volatility of -4.9% indicating a bearish trend, the trading volume was 2.58 times the 20-day average, which solidified downside rigidity. However, despite the trend of thematic news being falling (117 cases vs. 149 cases) and the presence of noise related to retail sales, the unexpectedly strong rebound momentum was not fully captured, leaving a sense of regret regarding the upward pressure created by the split buying and increased trading volume near the support level. In this trading session, we confirmed that the surge in trading volume to 2.58 times the 20-day average is not merely a simple decline in volatility, but could indicate the inflow of buying pressure during the bottoming process. Even with the current misalignment of moving averages and a weak RSI, we will respond to phases of strong trading volume by keeping our target return slightly more flexible or actively utilizing a partial profit-taking strategy to address potential upward movements.
OVERHIT 2026-08-07 17:49:32
Predicted 2.1% → Actual 16.5%
Amazon's stock price rose on accelerating cloud growth and an upward revision to its spending outlook. Key point: Considering the lack of alignment in moving averages and the bearish condition with RSI 40.6, we will respond conservatively after confirming the support level. Detailed conditions: Take profit when the price reaches near the resistance level of 250.0$, and cut loss if the support level of 215.0$ is broken. Key point: Given the bearish condition indicated by misaligned moving averages and an RSI of 40.6, a conservative approach after confirming support is advisable. Details: The entry price is $274.48; considering its position between the $215.00 support and $250.00 resistance levels, we keep open the possibility of adjustment toward support and conservatively evaluate entry. RSI(14) 40.6, moving averages misaligned, trading volume 2.58 times the 20‑day average, recent 7‑day change –4.9% Key sentence: Contrary to expectations, it overcame a conservative bearish phase and actually recorded a larger upside, receiving an overheat rating. Detailed content: At the point of entry, based on an RSI of 40.6, a misaligned moving average, and a -4.9% volatility over the past seven days, we established a conservative scenario that required confirmation of a support level. In reality, trading volume inflowed at 2.58 times the 20‑day average volume, indicating a concrete rebound attempt; however, the profit‑taking target we had anticipated of 250.0 was surpassed, ultimately yielding an actual return of 16.5%. We confirmed that the strong catalyst of cloud growth, together with increased trading volume, drove a price rise that exceeded expectations, going beyond a simple support‑level bounce. Key sentence: Even in a bearish phase of technical indicators, when there is positive news accompanied by a surge in trading volume, I will add a flexible perspective to avoid being confined to a mechanical conservative target price. Details: Through this trade, I felt the bearish indicators (RSI 40.6 and misalignment) and the limitations of auxiliary indicators, but I re‑evaluated the strength of supply‑demand changes such as a 2.58‑fold increase in trading volume on price. Going forward, in similar indicator environments I plan to more actively interpret whether the support level holds and whether trading volume accompanies it, incorporating flexibility when setting profit‑taking targets. Based on prior historical precedent, similar events have subsequently recorded price reactions of +1.7% on 2026-08-17, +2.5% on 2026-08-18, and +0.2% on 2026-08-19.
OVERHIT 2026-07-31 13:39:00
Predicted 2.5% → Actual 14.3%
Following the earnings announcement, investors have chosen Amazon (AMZN) as a beneficiary of AI, resulting in a significant surge in its stock price. In contrast to Apple's decline, Amazon saw a 12% jump in pre-market trading after the earnings report, attracting market attention. If the stock price reaches the resistance level of $250.0, I will take profits, and if it falls below the support level of $215.0, I will cut losses. Following the earnings announcement, a strong buying momentum has emerged, leading to a sharp increase in the stock price. Over the past 7 days, the stock exhibited a volatility of -4.9%, and we noted a reversal in the trend accompanied by increased trading volume after the earnings report. The RSI(14) is at a relatively low level of 40.6, and the moving averages have not yet aligned in a bullish formation. However, the trading volume has surged to 2.58 times the 20-day average, indicating strong volatility. While we accurately captured the strong increase in trading volume following the earnings announcement, we underestimated the momentum of the rise, achieving a return of 14.3%, significantly exceeding our target return of 2.5%. We have confirmed that a sharp rise can occur even when the moving averages are not in a bullish arrangement. In the future, during periods of increased volatility, we will consider the strength of the trend more closely when setting target prices.