[MSFT]

The rally driven by Microsoft's strong performance has lifted the stock price above the 200-day moving average. The RSI has entered a short-term overbought zone at 73.6, so I will approach with a staggered buying strategy while confirming whether it can maintain above the 200-day moving average. I will take profits if it reaches around $475.0 and will cut losses if the support level at $430.0 is breached. We consider a strategy of gradual buying while confirming whether it can settle above the 200-day moving average. The current price is above the support level of 433.83 and the resistance level of 460.00, and it has shown a fluctuation rate of +13.4% over the past 7 days, accompanied by a trading volume 3.41 times that of the 20-day average. RSI(14) 73.6, moving averages are misaligned, trading volume is 3.41 times the 20-day average, recent 7-day volatility +13.4% Initially, with an RSI of 73.6, we entered a short-term overheating zone and aimed to confirm whether the stock could settle above the 200-day moving average while approaching through a staggered buying strategy. However, in reality, the actual profit-taking target exceeded our expectations, recording a 10.7% actual return above the anticipated target of $475.0, resulting in an overhit designation. The strong buying momentum, supported by a trading volume 3.41 times the 20-day average and a +13.4% volatility over the past 7 days, was effective in ensuring that the stock price settled above the 200-day moving average. In this trading session, despite the short-term overheating indicator (RSI 73.6), the approach of confirming the trend accompanied by trading volume and the establishment of the 200-day moving average was valid. Moving forward, based on the increasing trend of news within the theme, the S-Class conversion rate, and clear support and resistance levels, we will consistently apply partial buying in the overheating range and risk management. There is a historical record of +28.6% on July 29, 2026, but this is merely an individual past response pattern of this stock and does not provide a direct buying motivation or reason.

Microsoft's strong growth is driven by the separation of AI trades. In contrast to Meta's decline due to missing guidance, Microsoft's stock has surged, attracting market attention based on the robust growth of Azure and Copilot. We will realize profits at the resistance level of $421.78 and execute a stop-loss at the support level of $358.9. Given the anticipated volatility accompanied by trading volume in a misaligned moving average state, we will base our strategy on the judgment that a split approach near the support level is advantageous. I will bet on Microsoft's unique position and performance momentum within the AI industry. Although the volatility over the past 7 days has been somewhat subdued at -2.9%, the recent trading volume has been 1.40 times the 20-day average, and the growth of Azure/Copilot has been confirmed, which supports the consideration for entry. The RSI(14) is at 53.9, indicating a neutral level, and the moving averages are in a non-aligned state. The trading volume has increased to 1.40 times the 20-day average. The stock achieved a return of 15.5%, significantly exceeding the forecasted return of 4.5%. While the technical indicators and news momentum at the entry point were appropriate, it was confirmed that the actual price increase was much stronger than anticipated. When a strong trend accompanied by volatility occurs, we need to practice reading the strength of the trend rather than simply focusing on numerical price targets. In cases like this, where there is a surge in trading volume, we will consider a strategy that follows the trend even before reaching the target price. A similar case in the past is the MSFT transaction conducted on 2026-07-31 at 03:27:52, which yielded a return of 15.5%.

The strong performance outlook for Microsoft and the growth related to AI are key factors. The Q1 revenue guidance is projected to be between $89.85 billion and $90.95 billion, with Azure's growth rate expected to reach approximately 45%. If the resistance level of 400 is breached and the profit target of $405.0 is reached, I will sell. If the support level of 380 is broken and the stop-loss price of $375.0 is reached, I will sell. We noted the confirmation of a strong growth outlook for Azure ahead of the earnings announcement. The stock has been consolidating with a volatility of -0.1% over the past 7 days, and we believe it is in a range where buying interest may arise near the support level of 380. The RSI(14) is at 56.4, indicating that it is neither in the overbought nor oversold range, and the moving averages are in a non-aligned state. The trading volume is at 0.98 times the 20-day average, which is considered a moderate level. It was a great success, with the actual return (15.5%) significantly exceeding the predicted return (1.8%). Technically, I assessed that the reversal signal was weak, but I underestimated the strong momentum following the earnings announcement and the surge through the resistance level of 400. We will more actively reflect the volatility around the earnings announcement. Even if technical indicators are weak, we will include the possibility of breakout trades in our scenarios if supported by strong fundamentals (such as Azure growth rate). In a past similar case, on 2026-07-31 at 03:27:52, MSFT recorded a return of 15.5%.

Microsoft's expansion of capital expenditures and strong backlog growth are key factors. The news of increased investment to meet AI demand, along with the fact that the backlog has grown by 8% compared to the previous quarter thanks to customers outside of large AI companies, is positive. We will monitor whether the resistance level of 410 is broken. If the resistance level is surpassed and reaches the profit-taking target of $420.0, we will realize the profits. If the support level of 380 is breached, we will execute a sell at the stop-loss price of $375.0. We focus on the strong performance momentum and the potential for a technical rebound. Although it has shown a -3.0% volatility over the past 7 days and is in a short-term downtrend, there are strong positive factors such as increased capital expenditures driven by AI demand and a growing backlog, making it worthwhile to look for a breakout point through the resistance level. The RSI(14) is at 50.2, indicating a neutral state, and the moving averages are in a non-aligned condition. The trading volume is somewhat low at 0.68 times the 20-day average. It achieved a remarkable success with a return of 15.5%, significantly exceeding the forecasted return of 4.2%. Despite taking a conservative approach due to the short-term downward trend and low trading volume, we overlooked the strong news momentum related to the earnings announcement that propelled the stock price explosively. We will more precisely assess the strength of news momentum. Even if technical indicators are somewhat uncertain, we will actively incorporate the volatility that can accompany strong fundamental news, such as earnings announcements, which have the potential to change the market landscape into our trading scenarios. There is a past similar success case involving a trade of MSFT that occurred on 2026-07-31 03:27:52, with a return of 15.5% (News: Microsoft earnings are out – here are the numbers, etc.).

Microsoft's strong cloud performance and the news of Azure surpassing $100 billion in revenue. The key points are that it exceeded cloud expectations for the fourth quarter and that investors are watching to see if companies like Alphabet will increase their capital expenditure plans. Selling pressure is expected at the resistance level of $400, so I will take profits at $400.0. If the support level of $380 is breached to the downside, there is a possibility of further decline, so I will set a stop loss at $375.0. A strong upward momentum has been observed following the earnings announcement. On July 30, the closing price surged to 451.1, marking a significant increase compared to the previous day, and related news indicates that the stock price is soaring to all-time high levels alongside better-than-expected earnings, prompting consideration for entry. The RSI(14) is at 50.2, indicating that it is neither in the overbought nor oversold range, and the moving averages are in a non-aligned state. The trading volume is somewhat low at 0.68 times the 20-day average, and the recent 7-day volatility is -3.0%. The company achieved a return of 15.5%, significantly exceeding the forecasted return of 1.5%. Technically, the RSI is neutral and the moving averages are misaligned, leading to a conservative approach in setting a lower target price. However, in reality, a strong rally followed the earnings announcement, resulting in outcomes that far surpassed the target price. We will reflect on the underestimation of strong volatility and news momentum immediately following the earnings announcement. Even if technical indicators are neutral, it is necessary to practice setting target prices flexibly when accompanied by strong earnings-based news (such as Azure revenue), thereby assessing the strength of the trend more highly. Past Similar Success Cases: 2026-07-31 03:27:52, Return 15.5%, News: Microsoft pops as Q4 results top estimates; Azure tops $100B in revenue, etc.