FAILED
2026-08-22 17:05:50
Predicted 4.5% → Actual -13.7%
Reddit (RDDT) has surged due to the positive news of its inclusion in the S&P 500 index, while still maintaining the upper resistance level of a symmetrical triangle convergence pattern.
The upward momentum following the inclusion in the S&P 500 continues, and if the target price of $187.43 is reached, I will take partial profits. If the upward trend due to the index inclusion breaks and falls below the stop-loss price of $135.22, I will cut my losses. These target and stop-loss prices are derived from REPORTING calculations.
With the strong catalyst of being included in the S&P 500 index, we considered entering as we observed a trend testing support despite recent stock price volatility.
The RSI(14) is at 44.8, indicating a neutral position, while the moving averages are in a non-aligned state. The trading volume is at 0.69 times the 20-day average, suggesting relatively low activity, and the recent 7-day volatility has slightly decreased by -1.2%.
Entered with strong catalysts from inclusion in the S&P 500 index and expectations of holding the upper bound of a symmetrical triangle convergence, but the actual result was a FAILED rating with a -13.7% loss. The overconfidence in positive news, despite an RSI(14) of 44.8, misaligned moving averages, and a poor trading volume at only 0.69 times the 20-day average, proved to be detrimental. Even though the 7-day volatility was already at -1.2%, the failure to adequately heed the warnings from technical indicators led to a reliance on positive news trading without sufficient support from supply and demand.
In the future, even if significant events such as major index inclusions occur, one should be more conservative in entering positions or hold off if the trading volume falls below the 20-day average and the moving averages are misaligned in a bearish phase. In particular, I will rigorously apply the principle of strictly verifying the alignment of momentum, actual trading volume, and trends in the next trades.
OVERHIT
2026-08-14 22:03:27
Predicted 4.2% → Actual 12.6%
Reddit's inclusion in the S&P 500 has led to an increase in its stock price.
If the current price remains above the support level, it seems likely to reach the profit target of $200.32. However, if it falls below the support level of $135.22, a stop-loss will be triggered.
Entered considering the current price above the support level and below the resistance level.
RSI(14) 42.1, moving averages are misaligned, trading volume is 0.54 times the 20-day average, recent 7-day volatility is -0.8%.
The actual return of 12.6% exceeded the forecasted return of 4.2%. It is sufficient to focus solely on the positive news and indicators.
How to reflect this review in the next trading — specific and actionable adjustments.
The past cases of the RDDT stock, as well as the cases of VEEE and LRCX, were referenced. The case of RDDT is related to its inclusion in the S&P 500.
FAILED
2026-07-31 13:57:20
Predicted 4.5% → Actual -18.6%
Reddit (RDDT) reported strong results, exceeding market expectations for both earnings per share (GAAP EPS) and revenue.
Following the earnings announcement, volatility has increased, but the upward momentum is maintained. If the resistance level of 185 is breached, it is expected to reach the profit-taking target of $200.0. Conversely, if the flow around the support level of 170 breaks down and downward pressure increases, I will manage the risk at the stop-loss price of $165.0.
Despite recording an earnings surprise, the stock price has sharply declined due to concerns over 'choppy' search referrals. At this point, one might consider entering the position based on the strength of the earnings themselves and the upward momentum.
Despite recording an earnings surprise, the stock price showed a downward trend, overshadowed by concerns over 'choppy' search inflows. On the actual date of 2026-07-31, the opening price was 147.7, the low was 142.34, and the closing price was 143.14, indicating a sharp decline. Ultimately, contrary to expectations, it reached a -18.6% actual result, resulting in a FAILED designation.
Even with the announcement of excellent performance indicators, we have learned that risk management should be applied more conservatively during periods of short-term market concerns or increased volatility. In the next trading session, we will more rigorously reflect not only the strong performance but also the day's sharp price fluctuations and supply-demand trends to reassess our stop-loss response criteria.
The cases of VEEE (return 451.7%), LRCX (return 346.8%), and AMD (return 333.8%) do not have direct similarities, but are provided as references for top performance across the region.